2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
Hollywood’s biggest night is here! The 98th Academy Awards are just days away. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has the most nominations out of any film with 16, setting a new record for most nominations for one film, followed by Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with 13 and Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein with 9, respectively. This is the most excited I have been for the Oscars in a long time. Not only do we have a great slate of movies nominated, but we actually have some tight races where a few nominees have the potential to win, making for an unpredicatable night that I hope is full of surprises. Here are my final 2026 Oscar predictions.
Best Picture
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Train Dreams
- While this is one of the strongest Best Picture slates we’ve seen in years, this is a two-film battle between Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Both films are worthy winners and would be among the best in Academy history. While there has been a late surge of love for Sinners, One Battle After Another has the edge for me because of how dominant it has been all season, especially with its win with the Producers Guild of America, which has matched the Oscar Best Picture winner in each of the last six years.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Best Director
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
- Paul Thomas Anderson has swept every major directing award this year and seems unstoppable here. Coogler is a dark horse to surprise if the Academy goes all-in on Sinners, but it’s hard to bet against Anderson here.
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Should Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
- This is the most chaotic category of the evening. Early on, it seemed like this was Chalamet’s to lose, but now it’s anyone’s game. Jordan won the SAG award right at the height of Oscar voting and gave an exceptional speech in a movie that has a lot of support. DiCaprio is an Oscar favorite, Hawke is beloved throughout the industry, and Moura might win the international vote. I’m picking Jordan, but it feels shaky.
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Should Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
- Unlike Best Actor, Best Actress is pretty locked up. Jessie Buckley has been steamrolling the entire season, with wins at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. If anyone else’s name is called, it will be one of the biggest surprises in Oscar history.
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
- Despite a very quiet beginning to awards season, Sean Penn has made a late-season surge, winning at BAFTA and SAG, and cementing himself as the frontrunner. If anyone were to catch him, I think it would be Skarsgård, who gives a sensational performance in another Best Picture nominee and has had a great career that could sway voters to give him his first Oscar over Penn’s third.
Will Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Should Win: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
- Another up-in-the-air category. Best Supporting Actress is a three-horse race between Teyana Taylor, Wunmi Mosaku, and Amy Madigan. Taylor won the Golden Globe, Mosaku won the BAFTA, and Madigan won at SAG. The Oscar winner in this category has matched the SAG winner in nine of the last ten years, so I’m leaning Madigan.
Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Should Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia – Will Tracy
Frankenstein – Guillermo Del Toro
Hamnet – Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
- Much like in Best Director, Paul Thomas Anderson has been running away with this one all year. Nobody is catching him here.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
Sinners – Ryan Coogler
- Both screenplay categories seem all but locked up. Coogler has won every screenplay this year, and he will continue that run at the Oscars.
Will Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sinners
Best International Feature Film
The Secret Agent
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
- With nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, and four acting nominations, the Academy clearly loves Joachim Trier’s family drama and will reward it here.
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident
Best Animated Feature Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
- Like their smash hit, KPop Demon Hunters is bound for a golden night.
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Rest of the Categories
Best Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sinners
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Train Dreams
Best Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Sinners
Best Film Editing
F1 — Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another — Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value — Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners — Michael P. Shawver
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Sinners
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Will Win: Frankenstein
Should Win: Frankenstein
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Best Original Song
Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless
Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
I Lied to You from Sinners
Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verdi!
Train Dreams from Train Dreams
Will Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Should Win: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Best Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirât
Will Win: F1
Should Win: F1
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should Win: The Alabama Solution
Best Animated Short Film
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Will Win: Retirement Plan
Best Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone’
The Devil is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
Best Live-Action Short Film
Butcher’s Stain
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
A Friend of Dorothy
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
The 98th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15th, at 7:00 PM EST
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